The Prediction of Day‐to‐Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm

نویسندگان

چکیده

Ionospheric scintillations caused by equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) can seriously affect various high technology systems based on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals at and low latitudes. A reliable prediction of ionospheric scintillation occurrence is critical to relieve the effect. Using long-term ground-based GNSS receiver ionosonde data collected in Brazilian longitude sector during 2012–2020, an strong model gradient boosting algorithms extreme (XGBoost), light machine (LightGBM), CatBoost created tested. It for first time that XGBoost, LightGBM, are utilized predict day-to-day regional post-sunset hours. The relative importance different parameters affecting EPB/scintillation building examined. comparison daily from modeled observed results 2014 (solar maximum) 2020 minimum) shows effective predicting over latitude, with a accuracy ∼85%. suggest trained input total electron content, F layer peak height frequency before sunset could be well employed occurrence/nonoccurrence intense latitude after basis.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Space Weather-the International Journal of Research and Applications

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1542-7390']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021sw002884